JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Where is Cyclone Alfred really?
The BOM weather map shows it offshore at the latitude of Brisbane and heading toward New Zealand but the satellite photo shows the cyclone already well south of the NSW border!
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Try: ventusky dot com
Click on the items on the left, such as clouds and precipitation.
This will get you different images and a “feel” for what is happening with your storm.
Get the Lat/Long by clicking on the center of the storm, and then you can calculate distance from land.
60
I posted this yesterday –
“Cyclone Alfred: Monday update as Brisbane, SE QLD, NE NSW prepare for direct hit –”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cGjmlaY_84
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And from yesterday, a 7 day Forecast –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yv1DOpeNG1Y
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They are both right. BOM tracks the low pressure or eye of the storm. The satellite shows the cloud which, strangely, is well south of the eye.
https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,-28.864,154.644,6,i:pressure,p:metars
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Thanks,
That is a strange thing. I thought the cloud had to be coincident with the centre of the cyclone.
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One thing that I hadn’t noticed is that the satellite image I was looking at was a night time image with false colour. The coming of daylight shows the true picture.
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Here’s another view of Anthony/Alfred 10am Aus-time (midday here & midnight last night UK UTC):
https://fvalk.com/images/Day_image/HIM-0000.jpg
00
It is currently tracking toward NZ; feeding off dry air to the east of NZ.
The weather forecasts have it reversing its track later today and heading westward toward Brisbane. It will then be feeding off dry air coming from west of NZ and also from NSW. They have it tracking towards Toowoomba.
The other three cyclones that developed in the Coral Sea or a bit further east in the past couple of weeks have all slid east of NZ and dissipated in the South Pacific.
I think it is hard to predict because Queensland already has a lot of moisture over it. The air west of NZ is much drier. I do not know what confidence they can place on it reversing direction but they got the one off WA right when I felt it would go further south.
We should know if it has reversed course this afternoon.
30
It appears Alfred has done a 150 and now heading for the coast. The forecast is to cross the coast midnight Thursday.
It does seem to be in a tug-of-war with the air coming from over NZ way. because the forecast has it moving about its current position before heading west.
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There has been a high pressure cell sitting just east of the North Island (NZ) that is now moving eastwards so it is unlikely to block the eastward progression of the cyclone any longer. Time will tell.
00
Shhhh! Just change the subject, eh!
Wasn’t it just so nice of the Bureau of Meteorology to magnanimously change the name of this Tropical Cyclone now bearing down on Brisbane as a super dooper highly deadly dangerous humungously destructive just updated to a Cat2 system. (so the ABC just told me on the 8AM news this morning)
I mean, just imagine, if you will, Cyclone Anthony moving in directly over Brisbane eh!
Can’t have that, now can we?
Let’s just change the name from the original Anthony to, umm, Alfred. That’ll fix it.
Let time perhaps diminish people’s memories. ….. This article is 17 days old. Plenty of time for the story to fade away, and plenty of things to talk about. (like maybe a new political party perhaps, Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party. Hmm! That’s original!)
Wokeness knows no bounds. (or am I just being too cynical here?)
Tony.
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No, I’d say just about the right amount of cynical Tony.
30
Tony
Re “Wokeness knows no bounds. (or am I just being too cynical here?)”
The only bounds it knows are of the “leaps and” kind it seems
10
Zelensky said:
President TRUMP responded:
You’ll have to see the link for the rest as the text is in the form of a photo and I can’t copy and paste:
https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1896602544618840468
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There are many borders in dispute. The Pakistan/India border, Korean Border, Cyprus, .. Trump’s point is that hundreds of billions in cash and munitions is pointless and devastating in lives and quality of life for tens of millions. Mass murder for nothing is not acceptable. America wants no part in it. And Zelensky insists on American troops on the ground. It’s the recipe for WWIII.
After more than three years, the fantasy of ‘winning’ has to stop. Unless there is another agenda. De facto absolute power, massive theft, internal oppression of Russians and the end of any rule of law. Zelensky’s revealed his agenda. It is not victory. And whatever he says, he is in fact an absolute dictator, not bound by a parliament of elected representatives. Even Mussolini was fired but Zelensky cannot be fired. The war gives Zelensky his absolute power and the fawning governments of Europe and Australia.
But when you have countries saying we will fight to the end and fully support your war, they really mean America. Australia cannot defend itself! As China just demonstrated. And Zelensky’s behaviour knows he can get away with a public international shirtfront of his ultimate protector with no consequences. The Democrats will use the war to undermine Trump and get back to war as usual.
In having a meeting with with Zelensky immediately before the White House signing ceremony, Democrats including congressman Chris Murphy have taken their ‘resistance’ to the level destroying critical international peace negotiations, where Congress does not belong. Murphy was interviewed and says the WhiteHouse has become an arm of the Kremlin.
Donald Trump was elected President and Commander in Chief of the Armed forces. Not Murphy. America cannot speak with two voices. No negotiation can succeed if opposition politicans can legally and openly advise Zelensky not to sign. Even having a meeting is treason. That Zelensky would attend a meeting with Trump’s enemies shows intent as he looked for a way out of signing. Yes, Trump was forcing him to sign. That’s not ‘bullying’ as claimed by Hollywood. It’s Trump’s difficult job, to force a settlement.
I would not be surprised if the CIA investigates what was said at the Murphy meeting. The cost to America and American negotiating power is great if Democrats act as if they are a legally legitimate rebel group at war with the President even in international affairs. What did they promise Zelensky? And on whose behalf? Will Trump can ignore blatant Democrat undermining of very difficult international negotiations or will Murphy and friends be interviewed and charged?
Murphy and friends are gambling that Trump will not dare.
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Mass murder for nothing is not acceptable.
Fully agree.
President Trump should also urge Putin to stop slaughtering his own people (and North Koreans as well) through unimaginable front line tactics being forced on his troops, even injured on crutches, in senseless frontal charges.
The Kremlin could also show its willingness to negotiate and stop this senseless bloodshed by ceasing nightly indiscriminate drone/missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian buildings and infrastructure well away from the disputed territories.
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“The Kremlin could also show its willingness to negotiate and stop this senseless bloodshed by ceasing nightly indiscriminate drone/missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian buildings and infrastructure well away from the disputed territories.”
I think you’ve missed the point of it all, Putin has said from the start teat the objective was to de-militarise Ukraine, so he hits any target that supports their military, anywhere in the country.
There is a constant flow of machinery and people coming in from the West and the the South, so he hits them before they get to the front. Likewise the Americans and Poms are making sure Ukraine hits the energy infrastructure and weapons stores of Russia, far behind the front lines, with their drones. The nightly shelling & drone attacks on civilians in Russia is small bikkies, just ‘business as usual’ for the Ukies.
If you want an education, check out the videos on Telegram after an attack on a civilian hotel. Suddenly all the rescuers are in uniform, the men who should be at the front line, but perhaps were at a military conference. Then look at Flightradar or similar for flights to Germany as the wounded and dead are taken to the giant American hospital there, and if you’re that sort of person you can believe the Yanks are treating all those wounded civilian that Zelensky goes on about. If you’re my sort of person you know Putin hit a hotel full of foreign military people and they are being flown out to Germany.
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‘ … the objective was to de-militarise Ukraine …’
No the objective was tp seize Ukraine in a few weeks, but that didn’t go down well.
Putin made a strategic blunder by going into Crimea, to test the water, giving the other side time to prepare for the inevitable invasion.
Orwell (1984) saw all of Eurasia and Europe under the Kremlin boot, do you think its possible?
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He was an absolute genius, was he not !
Weeks ago I wanted to mention the similarity – “against whom is our friendship today?” – sorry about my clumsy translation.
Is the war of West + Russia against China or China+Russia against West?
This Century it is an equation with an extra unknown – which side the 1900 million of you know who will take?
Another historic parallel – about 1939 Stalin was issued an invitation to join the Axis Powers.
The previously reasonable people here will not let me lie, no knows if he considered it even half seriously or was he just so good in hiding his cards from both sides.
Jesus !
Cards again ! Some people think they are plying card game…
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Vladimir: Please, there are Christians on this site and it is offensive to us to use the name of Jesus as a swear word. We wouldn’t be calling for retribution on you, unlike a certain other group, whose founder’s name you wouldn’t dare to use in that fashion.
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‘He was an absolute genius …’
A visionary of worth, Big Brother was king pin of Oceania, democracies failed and three autocracies ruled the world.
On the question of geopolitics, the China/Russia relationship has been dodgy in the past, but they seem to be settling in for the lang haul. They are major BRICS players and equally their economies are in free fall.
Jesus wept because he was in mortal form.
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I strongly advise previously reasonable people to take 2-3 deep breaths and stop anti-Zelensky hysteria.
Otherwise he might hear you, go to election again and win even more support at home and abroad.
The 51% Trump on other hand, is facing another election in a a year and a half and will do well to remember that many Americans elected him only as a lesser of two evils.
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Imagine how Churchill’s “We will fight them on the beaches” speech would have been received by this crowd, they would lynch him and bring back Neville “Peace in our time” Chamberlin.
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Fortunately for Trump the “weevils” are showing no signs of giving up “weeviling”!
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Maybe have another look at the tea leaves?
“Ukrainian MP Calls for Crucial Impeachment Proceedings Against Zelenskyy”
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2025/03/03/someone-from-the-member-of-the-ukrainian-parliament-is-calling-on-zelenskyy-to-resign-n2653131
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Zelensky was well schooled by Demo/RINO stirrers in order to engage The Trump Cabinet in a negative and antagonistic fashion. His body language alone was sufficient to cause temperatures to rise. Later Zelensky said that his retirement would be pointless as an election in Ukraine would just reelect him. The USA should Call his and Europe’s bluff and just slow walk further support for a week or two!
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You didn’t have to wait long –
See # 19 below
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President TRUMP banned men in women’s sports but a 21 year old transgender (actual male) has found a loophole by competing in female children’s sports:
https://youtu.be/KlJ_-j1k14M
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EU like UK trying to accelerate the impossible energy transition. Hitting the wall harder!
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2025/02/28/all-eyes-on-eu-as-it-presents-clean-industrial-deal-to-future-proof-energy-sector/
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So the EU (and the UK) are going to bring cheaper electricity by installing a most expensive method while also going to war?
Does that mean they think war is cheap?
I wonder what psychiatrists can do (if anything)?
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I have wondered about the vulnerability of off shore electricity generation for any country if all out war occurs. A few well directed air burst bombs would render wind farms inoperative and have no hope of being brought back on line within any sort of time line at all. The old on shore generators while still open to attack are at least defensible to a degree and also have the ability to be gerry rigged for damage repairs. Off shore, not so much.
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A “world wide” war today is a logistical impossibility.
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From the song “The Impossible Dream”, from my high school days:
“….this is my quest, to follow that star, no matter how hopeless, no matter how far…….to be ready to march into hell for a heavenly cause…”
Ursula is now so far detached from worldly realities that she risks meeting Major Tom, of Space Oddity fame.
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Just pour another 100 billion Euros down the drain, that will fix everything…
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US men’s restaurant chain Hooters decided to go woke and employ transgender as well as morbidly obese servers, not the traditional female servers they used to have. This is not what their traditional patrons wanted to see.
Obviously their management team didn’t understand the adage “get woke, go broke“.
[Note that Hooters is a franchise so I guess employment policies for servers may vary place to place and state to state, some restaurants may not have adopted the above policies.]
So now they are in serious financial trouble.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-21/hooters-in-talks-to-prepare-a-bankruptcy-filing-in-coming-months
The following video says it like it is but is definitely not PC if you feel you might get “triggered”:
https://youtu.be/o5Tl–3jEWg
Apparently an alternative restaurant chain along the same business model but without the wokeness is doing very well and I guess will ultimately replace Hooters:
https://twinpeaksrestaurant.com/
Incidentally, I am not saying I endorse the concept of these restaurants.
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Noticed Wivenhoe dam is still at 86.9%, the word is that the ginger beers will wait until the first rain falls before thinking about releasing water.
Have they learned nothing from past episodes.
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Doesn’t Wivenhoe hydro act as a backup battery for wind and solar?
They have to choose between catastrophic flooding due to the dam overflowing and a slighly less catastrophic blackout.
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Whew!
Thank heavens for that wonderful Wivenhoe hydro, the saviour of Queensland’s power grid no less.
A lifetime Capacity Factor of, umm, 3.6%, the best year ever only 10.5%.
Across the last 26 YEARS, it has delivered 4,358GWH of power, umm in 26 years did I say, you know the same amount of power delivered by the Bayswater coal fired plant in the last, umm 96 DAYS!
Thank heavens for Wivenhoe, eh!
Tony.
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It seems that Wivenhoe is trying to fulfil two roles – one as storage for Brisbane, the other as flood mitigation. Not sure that it can implement these two competing roles successfully.
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Don’t forget it’s also supposed to be water storage, so it has three jobs!
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Townsville’s main dam has been through a couple of iterations. I have it on good authority, I was servicing the surveyors’ jeeps, that the Five Head Ch Dam as he called it was primarily flood mitigation and was built with a deep, narrow spillway, no gates. The logic is simple, no matter how much water backed up behind the wall the discharge down river is limited.
The town has grown like Topsy since and water storage became important so they spent millions on improvements including radial gates. No way would the town have been flooded as it has been twice lately with the original design. But I understand the changes, pumping water from the Burdekin is V expensive and we have been in that situation a couple of times.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t I guess.
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Alfred is still heading south east. It is supposed to make a 150 degree right turn today. I have certainly seen 90 degree turns before so 150 will be interesting to see.
Very little rain showing on Brisbane radar yet.
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Deep State Dutton calls Zelensky a hero.
The following is copied from Farcebook:
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Vitamin D update from Dr John Campbell and Prof. David Anderson.
It’s tragic that most of the medical profession and government medical “authorities” ate utterly ignorant about the benefits of correcting Vitamin D deficiency.
Perhaps wilfully ignorant, as why use a cheap substance to treat or prevent a condition when an expensive one from Big Pharma will do?
https://youtu.be/eUfv_y-Zeq0
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Thanks David,
Well worth the 32 mins. The mention of calcifidiol is instructive and valuable, as is their discussion of blood levels and how vitamin D is used up.
And the opening comments are amazing.
Cheers,
Dave B
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Vit D is consumed when fighting infection. SOP should be calcifidiol IV immediately. Once ill, oral tabs are useless.
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Vit D is consumed when fighting infection. SOP should be calcifidiol IV immediately for virtually anything. Once ill, oral tabs are useless.
20
During COVID we saw the organized campaign against IVM and HCL. There were multiple aspects to that aggressive campaign which had been honed during the decades long campaign against Vitamin D. The medical blob have been at it a long time to protect their financial interests. Their financial interests are served by recommending new products and tech that have higher profit margins and are protected by patents. It’s as simple as that.
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Thanks,
I have downloaded Prof Anderson’s book and started to read it.
20
https://richardsonpost.com/howellwoltz/38900/trump-foreign-policy-changing-soon-to-freedom-policy/
The times sure are a changing. The sooner the better. Maybe, post election, Albo Tross will be able to come out of the closet rather than parade around with trannies and transvestites etc.
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Starship launches at 1030AM AEST.
You can watch it live on X.
https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1896292787600908747
Or
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-8
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Launch was cancelled at 40 seconds to liftoff.
Will try again tomorrow or next days.
01
A bit of a shock. Checked the Weather page and it claimed that the temperature for Mt. Barker at 9 a.m. was 21℃ whereas my outdoor thermometer reported 12℃ (up from 9.5℃ earlier). I have offened thought that my view of the temperature locally was different than the “official” BOM ones, and I agree that my outdoor thermometer isn’t a standard model (nor my car thermometer which reads differently with the BOM. with radio reports while driving).
Will be interested if we reach 31℃ maximum expected today.
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Arrgh, productivity in Victoria. Received the notification letter that works would be carried out on a transformer on a power pole that runs through our property. We would be the only customer affected by this planned 2 hour outage. Foreman fronts up yesterday, discusses work and times, all good.
The crew front up 2 hours early due to work redistribution, foreman asks can he pull the pin, yep no problems. Foreman has heated discussion on phone back to job controller, wants to start, customer has no issues, but NO. The start time was 10.30 so sit around for two hours doing NOTHING.
Currently power out, could have been back on and crew moving to next job, but nope.
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‘PROGRESSIVE’ in a nutshell.
Time to crack it.
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How would the job controller back in his/her/their airconditioned office have any clue if the foreman started when he said he would then tootle down the road and have a 2 hour ‘lunch’ break.
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I wondered that and took it up with the foreman, he just shook his head, he would be early at all the jobs that day, he would have to ring in at the next job for permission to start early. It was just easier to waste the first two hours and get make to the timetable!
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Tesla sales in trouble.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/cant-sell-its-cars-horror-news-for-tesla-owners-as-prices-plunge/news-story/749f5f80c8592e5d90921e566c6abcba?utm_source=News.com&utm_medium=Google&utm_campaign=DSA&utm_source=SEM&utm_medium=PPC_SEM&utm_campaign=%7Bcampaign%7D&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADnTK28ilKj0_QH7S0sjA2sB-2se1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI6oq0-I3viwMVtw2DAx1U3RTqEAAYASAAEgKqHfD_BwE
The problem for Tesla in particular is two fold; not only are people waking up to the expense and general impracticality of electric cars, but also the people who buy electric cars are the same ones that are likely to get upset by Elon Musk’ DOGE activities, steering them to other brands.
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Has anyone been conflicted as to whether or not they should buy a Tesla? On the one hand, I hate EVs. But on the other hand, I love Elon Musk because he’s the greatest inventor and businessman in human history. Which way should I go?
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To my way of thinking the only thing they have going for them is each one on the road starves an Arab and that electricity is easier to make than petrol or diesel fuel if there is a massive problem with shipping.
If we are ever blockaded by a foreign power, anything we can make or grow locally will be worth gold, so coal, natural gas, food etc will be super important.
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So I should buy a Tesla because we hate Arabs?
10
My own, no one else, conspiracy theory:
Certain informal political coalition blows up slightly aged coal power stations and at the same time, replaces gas heaters with electric ones, ICVs with EVs, etc,… on a continent scale because they have shares in nuclear power companies.
When one day even the bank data storages, forget about hospitals and army, will stop dead without energy they roll out their container-size nuclear gensets and voila!..
How many towns of 50+k people in Australia ? Possbly that many deposits have been already transferred…
60 years ago French industry has built 15 (?) reactors in 10 years. Why ? Because they thought there was a real need.
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Huh! They say it without even blinking any more.
Mr Bowen has rejected the proposal for an offshore Industrial wind plant in Gippsland.
Now blah blah blah, reasons, excuses, etc.
This plant was mooted to have a Nameplate of 1500MW, with 150 X 10MW turbines. So 1500MW at a CF of 30%, makes for an average power generation of 450MW.
The cost ….. $6 BILLION ….. for 450MW.
Oh, but renewable power is so cheap, eh!
Tony.
PostScript – I just love the artists impression image at the top of the article. Most of the fans are pointing in all different directions. Oh, and when you look at the map showing the four projects, have no fear, they won’t get built. We don’t have the specialist ships for the construction. (Tosh! A minor consideration, muses Mr Bowen!)
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So-called Artificial Intelligence ‘art’ fails again – plus where’s all the magic free wind? Instead there’s a breathless calm glassy day (great for colour brochures) but you wait until Cyclone Anthony (oops!) Alfred comes roaring through the Bass Strait… snap!
30
Mmm, maybe the bubble is bursting and more people are starting to see through the bulltish. Been in South Africa recently and heard a story of a government official from that neck of the woods asked “So what are you doing for the environment?”, and her reply was apparently “do you see all of these fans we are installing on the hilltops to make the wind blow and combat the warming”…
20
Mowing lawns in California is pricey
California resident is at Lowe’s showing the electric lawnmowers they have. It is now ILLEGAL to sell gas powered lawnmowers in California. He points out the price is now 3X the price for these vs the gas powered ones that are banned
“Thanks to Newsom, here’s all your choices in lawnmowers now. You got the $6,000 John Deere Electric, you got the Ego for $7,000, another Ego for $6,000, Craftsman for $6,000, another Craftsman Electric for $5,000.”
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1896062739291734069
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As Steely Dan wryly prophesied long ago:
‘California, tumbles into the sea…’
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Some beachfront property in Qld/NSW are at risk due to Alfred.
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Leftists in 2016: OMG, TRUMP is going to start WW3.
Leftists in 2025: OMG, TRUMP refuses to start WW3.
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Bill Clinton in interview years ago – I befriended Vladimir Putin to get to know him. I think I got to know him enough to be able to better negotiate with him. Media reaction – Bill Clinton is a masterful negotiator, a champion. Trump- does same thing and he’s a “Putin Puppet”.
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Dear Annie, re 2.1.1.1.1
Sincerely, I apologise.
Also, the autocorrector’s fault – playing, not plying !
10
FWIW
“Zelenskyy Caught Red-Handed Misleading the United States”
“In a bombshell revelation that shouldn’t surprise anyone paying attention to the Ukraine conflict, we now have evidence that President Zelenskyy has been misleading the United States about his dealings with our European allies. This deception runs deep, and President Trump is having none of it.
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer dropped this truth bomb during a recent Newsmax interview, revealing that a “battle of dueling narratives” exists between the White House and Ukraine over a minerals deal.
During the interview, Shaffer revealed that mere days before Trump’s inauguration, “the British signed an agreement with Ukraine to have exclusive rights to those [mineral rights] deals.” ”
““We are being played. We, the United States, are trying to be signed up to a deal that we provide security guarantees to an economic development deal that Keir Starmer has already signed them up to do,” Shaffer said. “The first thing it has to do is people have to take a step back and be honest with what’s really going on.” ”
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/03/03/zelenskyy-caught-red-handed-misleading-the-united-states-n4937504
Stock up with beverages and nibbles!
10
FWIW
“BREAKING: Trump Makes a MAJOR Move on Ukraine”
“The White House announced on Monday that military aid to Ukraine would be suspended, including weapons in transit and those currently in Poland.
“This is not permanent termination of aid, it’s a pause,” Fox News reported. “The orders are going out right now.”
A senior Trump administration official told Fox that the pause would last “until Trump determines that Ukrainians show a commitment of good faith in peace negotiations.” ”
https://pjmedia.com/paula-bolyard/2025/03/03/breaking-trump-halts-military-aid-to-ukraine-n4937527
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Apart from anything else, what is Once Great Britain going to do with all those minerals if they have no energy or industry?
And what a lowlife Zelensky is, pretending he was going to do a minerals deal with TRUMP, who could have put the minerals to good use, when Z. already had a prior deal he didn’t disclose to TRUMP.
10
Surely this will lead the 6pm News tonight, along with apologies from all the political scientist commentators who’ve been barking up the country (wrong tree).
crickets…
10
There is a Lithuanian would-be trans Pacific rower on board HMAS Choules who would be thankful DEI is not universal in our navy. The rescue was never going to be easy in such seas but it appears to have been done perfectly. Kudos to the seamen involved.
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