Cyclone Alfred headed straight for Brisbane
It’s not often a cyclone heads straight for a big population center in Australia, and the media is running minute by minute updates:
It’s a slow moving category 2 storm, that won’t set any wind speed records, but will cross paths with 3 or 4 million people. Current wind speeds at 20 locations are available here. Let’s just hope it doesn’t rain for too long. The latest BOM report says sustained winds are 95km / hour with gusts to 130 km/hr. (Roughly 60 to 80 mph).
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
If “Climate Change” has any effect on Australian cyclones, it’s to reduce them:
With the usual logic and reason of top climate experts, this suggests that car engines, burgers, cows and coal can prevent cyclones. Anyone driving an EV, or eating vegeburgers clearly doesn’t care about koalas (or delicate solar panels):
These were Australian cyclone tracks 51 years ago, before mankind emitted 75% of all emissions of CO2 ––
Two cyclones went past Brisbane.
Back in days when humankind had barely started jumping on planes for hot weekends and footy finals, cyclones even threatened New Zealand.
Best wishes for readers and their homes in the path. Thank you to everyone who uses petrol, diesel, coal, and beef. We appreciate your sacrifice.
Jo, I think you made a typo, it’s Cyclone Alfred.
[Shh. But thank you. Must be the parallax error from 5,000 km away – Jo]
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Moreton Bay would have been created/extended by a large cyclone.
Anyone located below 30m in Brisbane’s beachside suburbs needs to start gathering their important possessions and be ready to move to high ground. Anyone not easily moved needs to go now.
For those thinking they can endure it, imagine a 4m higher tide and 10m wave on top of same plus 150km+/hour gust.
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So you dumb, Australian Green Communists don’t have electricity producing ocean tidal wave machines all lined up for this? What’s wrong with you????
I mean this is FREE GREEN ENERGY at your fingertips
[ / Sarc. – LVA]
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I heard a rumor that this cyclone originated as Cyclone Anthony but it’s name had to be changed because of possible election interference.
Terence M
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I heard a rumor that the cyclone was called ANTHONY but this had to be changed
urgently because of potential electoral interference. Anyone know?
Terence M
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I heard a rumor that the cyclone was called ANTHONY but this had to be changed
urgently because of potential electoral interference. Anyone know?
Terence M
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Sorry but I can’t get rid of 2 posts. Advice welcome for a semi literate user.
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Been there, done that. Sometimes you just have to be patient and refresh the webpage before you post again.
You’re correct, the cyclone was renamed because some people may be inclined to negatively associate it with Anthony Albanese.
I don’t expect any of those people are regulars on this blog as their mind was made up well before the cyclone was on the horizon.
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Advice for tropical Cyclone Alfred.
Not a joke.
The dumbing-down of Australia is alarming.
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“The dumbing-down of Australia is alarming.”
I know.
What kind of non-science believing person WOULD NOT first think COVID-19 safety when facing CAT 2 DEATH imminent cyclone threat?
Leaving home without hand sanitizer?!
Unthinkable.
Shocking that some are so poorly informed (by misinformation) as to need reminding.
I hope no one is crossing a state border to escape danger from weather and spreading viruses.
Old people are contagious, they should be left behind and isolated.
Australians should by now be adjusted to forgoing final goodbyes to elderly loved ones.
After all they de-sequestered most of the carbon … from stolen land.
Sarcasm.
I was listening to my local talk radio station discussing Trump’s speech.
I got a pit in my gut because it suddenly struck me …
Western elite progressives are Extinction Level Crazy.
I don’t know if this can be fixed.
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Munted Sycophantic Media [MSM] here is pushing the same gut-wrenching mind-twisting TRUTH™️ which, sadly yet as expected, neighbours and associates take for gospel (apologies in advance to Annie), repeating headlines word-for-word concerning literally Trump bully and carbon climate crisis (CCC) whatever that is.
It snowed last night on our North Island’s Central Plateau volcanoes, -0.5C at 10am with a dusting of impossible climate fallout powder at the Tukino Ski Lodge (1,700m) on Mt Ruapehu (9,000ft). Emissions can do anything – all at once – if only you believe. Hoot for Honk!
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It’s ok Greg; ‘gospel’ means ‘good news’.
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😃
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Just remember that the 1974 floods were caused by Cyclone Wanda which was BELOW Cat1 and crossed the coast on Fraser Island, this is much different, and the dam engineers don’t seem to want to let the dam water out of the full dams.
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Me thinks “a Go Bag” would be advisable. Start with food and water for, say 3 days per person, flashlight, medicines. I have two boxes with “stuff” in the back of my vehicle. I’m sure there are no masks. 🤔
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My thoughts exactly. People in the landfall zone need practical advice like this rather than outdated useless advice for a virus that poses a much lesser threat than the imminent gale force winds and flooding.
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Alfred is in a tug-of-war between heading west or heading south east. The more water that gets dropped over SE Queensland before it crosses, the risk of actually crossing the coast reduces. There is still a lot of dry air between the cyclone and NZ.
The convective potential off the Northwest coast is now very high again; up to 4600J/kg:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=cape/orthographic=-224.82,-23.43,674/loc=119.351,-19.116
When that becomes unstable, there would be a good chance of spinning up a cyclone not far from the coast.
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” and the media is running minute by minute updates: ”
Reminds me of 2020.
Almost a complete repeat.
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I wonder how the wind and solar subsidy farms will fare?
It would only be an improvement if they didn’t survive.
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As a data point the business that installed my solar panels emailed yesterday advising me to disconnect the panels for the duration.
I wonder what the Australian Standard says about structural integrity. And I wonder what the large scale solar farms are doing.
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And if you were away from home?
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The Valdora solar system on the Sunshine Coast went underwater in March 2022 – looks like some genius built it in a valley. Might cop a repeat soon.
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https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2022/03/10/sunshine-coast-solar-farm-flooding/
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I think that investing on offshore wind farms won’t be as enthusiastic with investors as Labor thinks.
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Even at the current high level of subsidies of wind and solar in Australia, there is little attraction for offshore wind subsidy-harvesting plantations.
As the Liberals and Green Labor remain fanatically committed to “green” (sic) energy and the Paris Accords (yes, including Dutton) and see offshore wind as “the future”, I can only assume that subsidies will be further increased, harvested directly off consumer electricity bills as is the case now and maybe additional taxpayer-funded subsidies.
Here is a list of proposed wind subsidy-harvesting projects in Australia. Supplied by Goolag AI, I haven’t checked them. I don’t normally trust Goolag but on woke subjects it is probably correct because wokeness, not truth, is what Goolag is paid to promote.
You can see the lack of certainty from the words I bolded. The uncertainty will be removed only if Government provides even more taxpayer-funded subsidies. And I have no doubt that the Uniparty will provide them.
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It’s about time that there was a Federal Senate Enquiry into all of this.
How much Taxpayer and borrowed money is going towards these subsidies?
What Organisations are getting these subsidies?
Who owns these Organisations, especially Foreign ownership?
And, many more questions.
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The puerility of the media is getting worse all the time.
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Toowoomba is 150km inland and all schools have been closed, and for another 50km to the west(mandated yesterday) for today and tomorrow. Pathology collection services are shut down, daycare centres are closed. As of Wednesday morning, the entirety of Queensland’s (automated via computer) vaccine ordering system was shut down so you cannot even submit an order (just say there will be delivery delays, don’t shut down the whole system).
Woke this morning to clear blue skies and the barest wind.
The coast, sure, sensible on the information they had, but west of Ipswich could have waited another day to decide to close schools on the Friday if needed. We can cope with heavy rain (almost continuous the last 4 years) and gusts of wind….
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Australia has become extremely risk-averse and terrified of the most minor anomaly.
Aussie pioneers and ANZACs of yesteryear would be appalled.
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Australia is the guinea pig.
And you can see why.
Crikey, people are still wearing masks, for God’s sake.
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Judging by the traffic headed into Brisbane early this morning, still thick and slow, it’s mostly those in the public service who’ve been told to stay home.
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Possibly more people on the road because of the public transport shutdown. Yesterdays peak hour saw significantly reduced traffic volumes but PT was still running.
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So even when the public transport is suspended, people get the car out to go to work – if they’re in the private sector.
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Clinton,
Did you really write “Woke this morning … “?
Geoff S
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Let’s talk about intensity. More heat = more potential energy. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation tells us that amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7% for every degree Celsius increase in Earth’s atmospheric temperature. Coastal water temperature around Queensland have approximately 1°C over the past 100 years, with 0.6°C of that increase occurring since the 1960s.
https://www.redmap.org.au/article/sea-temperatures-and-climate-change-in-queensland/
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1 degree Celsius? I doubt it as sea current temperatures fluctuate on multiple timescales. Quoting the CSIRO (formerly esteemed) is pushing credibility somewhat.
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Think it through Simon. This is about the weakest cyclone in living memory.
Now, your bot was talking about intensity…
Do tell is more!
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Simon,
Nope. More heat = more thermal energy.
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Cyclone Alfred is currently at 978 hPa and yet Cyclone Mahina in 1899 was estimated at 914 hPa with some more modern research indicating actual values could have been as low as 880 hPa. According to NASA, 1899 was a cold year and the seas around Australia were unusually cold. How does that work according to your theory?
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Cyclone Mahina was a category 5 and considered one of the most intense cyclones ever recorded in the southern hemisphere. All with colder than normal temperatures. Interesting.
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Simon just seen Zali Steggle use the same argument about increased water vapour in the atmosphere causing more droughts and bushfires !
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Now THERE is an example of why sports stars should stay out of politics.
But of course, she’s so nice. Just like all the Teals.
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And of course, she relied on consistent snowfall for her earlier career choice. Flying around the world to compete on a regular basis. She also managed to win a place on the Olympic podium, part of a team funded by you. Thank you.
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Meanwhile the cyclone chart in the article shows a DECLINE in tropical storms over 55 years time, thus your post was dead on arrival.
What else you got to say.
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I’ve got high temperature water vapor coming out my ears after reading Simon’s comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaxWAG67hUI
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‘Climate models suggest there could be a future shift towards fewer, but more intense, tropical cyclones.’ (BoM)
Global warming doesn’t make TC more intense.
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No but the media do !
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There’s the three words that stops the argument in its tracks, and right at the start of the sentence.
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Any excuse for another ™️lockdown™️ re-set.
That kaka green troppo track which clipped Brizzo then performed a 360 in the Tassie before riding over NZ then throwing a 180 and heading back to the NW … possibly was ‘Zoe’ in March 1974.
As a teenage grommet, ‘Zoe’ was my 1st true cyclone swell experience as waves were breaking even in sheltered spots along the east coast – most impressive – and I’ve been chasing cyclones ever since 😃
Irrational manufactured fear still rules the roost, as opposed to the cool calm knowledgeable practicality shown here on Jo’s site – then again not many rainbow-dyed hysterics frequent these pages. Enjoy the waves and the rain!
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That system to the east of NZ looks quite interesting as well. They given it a name yet?
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That cold snow-bearing low didn’t deserve a name because it didn’t fit in with the official narrative, ie. heat = moisture = man’s fault.
It was a sneaky cold front which slid up the east coast (been happening since Polynesians sailed their waka around the Shaky Isles) dropping snow on Mt Hutt & the Kaikouras, then last night on Mt Ruapehu (North Island). I’m farther north and we maxed-out on 20C today with a bitingly cold southerly breeze 🥶
The Chatham Islands (east of NZ) have been under a hurricane-like warning for GALES & HAIL & HUGE SWELLS … but as it’s ‘cold’ the Greenfreaks don’t want to know about it: some climates are less equal than other climates, y’know?
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Just watching the inevitable extreme weather news hype featuring Albo trying to score some cred by explaining the machinations of cyclone Alfred. Pathetic!
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They use ‘may’ a lot, its a farce.
‘In our changed climate, when tropical cyclones form they form in a climate that is warmer, wetter, and more energetic than before. This means tropical cyclones may intensify more quickly, may reach stronger wind speeds, and may dump more rain.’ (Climate Council)
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After many, many predictions that came unstuck they use ‘may’ as a getout.
1988: Maldive Islands will Be underwater by 2018
1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
1989: New York City’s West Side Underwater by 2019
2000: Children in England won’t Know what Snow Is by 2007. Later moved to 2010.
2008: Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013 then moves 2013 prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles we Have 96 Months to Save
2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to Save The Planet From Catastrophe 2009:
2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015
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I get the irrits when they use ‘may’ in combination with ‘up to’.
That way they can really ramp up the apocalyptic prophecies, “Climate change MAY cause winds UP TO 200kph” and so forth. They never use the average of all forecasts, but cherry pick the worst possible. Even if the probability of a bad thing happening is extremely low, and the probability of the bad thing happening AND to the worst possible extent is the least likely scenario, that’s the forecast they will provide.
Fear is like fire, you gotta keep stoking it and feeding it, otherwise it will disappear.
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It also may cause cyclones to travel very slowly, almost at a dawdle, stall, then change direction, deepen then weaken, fall apart and reform – the ocean is a cruel mistress, yet where would we be without her 🐟 💦
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Ken Stewart looked at QLD cyclones from 1969 to 2018 and found a lower trend over that period, or the same trend as the BOM.
Dr Nott also found more cyclone intensity over the previous 5,000 years and the last super cyclone hit the QLD coast in 1820. Time to think about it.
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/category/tropical-cyclones/
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Time to think indeed.
But thinking is ray cist or sex ist or homo phobic or something isn’t it?
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Neville, great link to Ken’s work, another keeper.
The 1970s were the heyday for cyclone swells (surf) in Queensland: I lived there 81-84 when the doldrums had set in (though there were some epic days) eventually driving west to Margaret River and the wild thrills of the deep southern Indian Ocean.
Strange how ‘experts’ have no comprehension of the meaning of the word ‘cycles’, as if they live on a flat square Earth. No Sphere!
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This is an interesting paper. (we ain’t seen nuthin yet…!)
Nott, J. (2004). Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones—a review and implications for hazard assessment. Environment International, 30(3), 433–447. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.010
https://sci-hub.se/10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.010
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markx,
Looks like bunkum to me. Time and again it has statements like:
Like the treemometers, only the enlightened ones can read these messages from the gods.
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Well, it seems to be detailed work to me, and the conclusions seems sensible.
Many look at the world through the lens of their own lifetime experience, and discount (or don’t even consider) the possibility of pre-historical extremes. In our brief 200 year observation of this continent, we should consider that we may have missed a few things, and what has been so far experienced may not be the norm.
But, I see your point, Nott may be wrong, the doomsayers may be right, and the cyclones we get now may well be worse than they were in the past (though as Jo points out, there is little evidence of that, outside of models).
There would certainly be a lot of teeth gnashing if one of these super-cyclones did suddenly occur, and I am sure the finger would be pointed at ‘climate change’.
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markx,
Yes, detailed work. I’d call the conclusions *plausible*, but they go beyond what can reasonably be concluded from the data.
For example, they claim the frequency of these super-cyclones is irregular, but what would happen if you had “super-cyclones” regular as clockwork every 50 years (say), but sporadically, some of them are “mega-cyclones” that disturb 250 years (say) of sediments. In truth you’re getting absurdly regular storms, but the patchy “memory” makes them look sporadic.
I confess that I have some extra negativity towards the paper because it says speleothems “hold promise” for working out when prehistoric cyclones occurred. This appears to be typical climate science by magic spell. Today I deem this oxygen isotope ratio to be a proxy for [dramatic pause] cyclones [rumble of thunder]. Run a regression and, abracadabra, look at all the cyclones!
Alarmist arguments are weak science, but this paper is weak science too. No surprise given where it came from.
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markx,
You note our brief observation of 200 years.
At age 84, I have been around for 42% of that observation period. It is sad that people with far lesser experience confuse wisdom with silly old farts. It is almost a modern art form to not only silence, but to denigrate, elders like Ken Stewart whose blog of accurate, real observations is little known among those who could learn from it.
Geoff S
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” … two super-cyclones between 1800 and 1870.”
That is interesting, the Southern Hemisphere was still in the grip of the Little Ice Age until 1900.
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I presume those tracks are the result of most of the cyclones. The reason I ask is that Cyclone Alby came right down the WA coast in 1978 and took out Rockingham and Busselton jetties, yet its track doesn’t appear on that map.
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Hi Graeme, the tracks shown are just 73/74
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See the link I provided under the map and pick 77/78. Alby showed up. Another year I saw one start near Africa and finish south of Albany. WA.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/beta/
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The map is for 1973/74 only. See Ken’s page for others
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Climate Porn pushed by the BOM and the Albanese government. Nothing more.
Anything to distract from the worst government in Australian history.
When nothing much happens, they will say we missed a disaster. Again.
Send more cash to Canberra and we will keep you safe.
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Watching SkyNews last night and BOM have a recommended disaster pack you should keep handy for times like this and included in the must have items were a mask and hand sanitizer to prevent Covid 19 if there’s a few of you hunkering down in a small space .
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Did a quick look around some MSM TV while having a morning tea to try to see some video of the cyclone. I swear if I hear another politician or media person utter the words “…. our hopes and prayers are with the people of Southern Queensland” and ” .. shout out to all the emergency workers ” – I’m gong to scream. It’s also pretty clear PM Albanese travelled to the area to bolster his image.
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There is freaking out about a winter low pressure system in America too.
https://weather.com/storms/winter
Late summer in the SH, winter in the NH, has this happened before?
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First there was ‘Kingston’, then ‘Lola’ – they come in threes so what’s your guess for the ‘M’ storm that’s sure to follow…
Snow in the south in spring: a sure sign your president is a). literally an Austrian landscape painter of mediocre ability or b). he’s ended Gerbil Wobbling by Executive Order and apocalyptic arsonists now see the light? They’re probably snow blind 😎
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Albo Upgrade in QLD, I’m from the govt and I’m here to help, myself mainly.
Jeez, one disaster is enough mate.
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I bet he’s pissed that he came all this way and the bloody disaster refuses to happen. No doubt he has other more important things to do. I’m sure that, if he slinks off back to Canberra before the storm arrives, the press will have no problem with that.
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It’s about time that there was a Federal Senate Enquiry into all of this.
How much Taxpayer and borrowed money is going towards these subsidies?
What Organisations are getting these subsidies?
Who owns these Organisations, especially Foreign ownership?
And, many more questions.
01
Having trouble posting and editing comments just now.
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Having irouble posting – this is a reply to an upthread post.
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Having trouble posting – this is a reply to an upthread post.
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Brisbane and Gold Cost Airports are now closed along with Rail and Bus services and hi EV Guv’ment car has broken down (if only).
Hope he gets stuck there.
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Having trouble posting and editing the posts.
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Having trouble posting and editing comments just now.
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Brisbane and Gold Cost Airports are now closed along with Rail and Bus services and his EV Guv’ment car has broken down (if only).
Hope he gets stuck there.
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Been happening to me all day, slow as, must be the cyclone’s fault. Or iceberg A23 running aground on South Georgia. Or Albo’s running interference.
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I think if I happened to be in one of those fancy Gold Coast high rises on the beach, I’d be wondering how many electric cars are parked in the underground car park and how much seawater is getting in there.
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Anyone using an underground car park should be aware of the flooding risk and move their car when heavy rain is forecast.
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Someone called Cameron is very worried about the effects of Trump staff cuts on NOAA!
https://earth.nullschool.net/
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Cameron Beccario appears a very nice chap. He is a computer programmer. As far as I can tell, Nullschool has no income steam but must cost a reasonable amount to host because it is a fast server with lots of information and lots of historic data now.
NOAA has lost 800 probationary staff out of a workforce of around 12,000. I doubt this data that Nullschool depends on is at risk.
I think the moored buoys and ARGO buoys might come under DOGE scrutiny. The climate modellers do not like field measurements because they do not conform to their models. But if DOGE shut down climate modelling then the circus will die a natural death and Climate Change™ will be no more.
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Funny, when government action destroyed my business built on 40 years of slow toil, no science government yupsters expressed the least sympathy for me.
Oh wait, they only do God’s work (Science Religion), the rest of us don’t.
I faced derision for the slightest questioning of their high moral wisdom.
I notice as ‘Climate Change’ is fading, the pleasure is equally countered by increasing anger over the BS we’ve been subjected to.
(Particularly the despicable fear mongering propaganda psychological terror waged on children.)
So strange, I recall 15 years ago or so when I first began to go deeper into the Climate issue, it literally only took a few weeks to realize that the Climate Change advocates were intellectually dishonest.
NOAA should dump more people.
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We’re doomed.
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What – again? 😃
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On the weather page of the Courier Mail the BOM is warning about the possibility of high wind heavy rain and fire risk is high.
Known Flods in the Brisbane & Bremer River Basin,
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml
The more land that is covered with kerb and channel, bitumen and concrete the faster flow of any rain that falls into the tidal rivers and increase flooding when an incoming tide meets the water draining from the land
Bremer River Rail Bridges
https://www.railxarchaeologyipswichqld.com/original-bremer-road-rail-bridge/
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Accelerated runoff can also scour all life out of small urban waterways, washing everything away. It can take quite some time for vegetation to return, especially if the most fertile soil has been washed away. This is why so many urban streams are in bad shape – they swing wildly from dry as a cracker, to full-on raging flood, then back to empty again.
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The latest from Weather Watch TV on Cyclone Alfred -–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr3kRCDzIRY
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At Wynnum near coast, 10mls yesterday till 9am this morning, 4mls since then. Wind very sparse, nothing happening. “Cyclone” slowing down, nearly stopped. I think this is much about nothing.
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This is kraken level science, the more CO2 , the better, its sooooo simple.
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