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By Jo Nova
With exquisite timing, another price rise in Australian electricity arrived just in time for the next election
As the Opposition point out the Labor government went to the last election telling us 97 times how they would make our electricity $275 cheaper, but with the latest rise, it’ll cost more like $1,300 more than it did before the Labor party were elected. Prices look set to rise about two or three times faster than inflation. But coming after big blockbuster rises two years in a row, even a 5 or 10% rise is nasty.
The Australian Energy Regulator (AER). Being part of The Blob, diplomatically and uselessly blame nearly every part of the system, as though this is just bad luck, even though they must know exactly which single dominant factor has changed in the last 30 years.
Average wholesale market spot prices increased across 2024, impacted by factors such as high demand, coal generator and network outages, and low solar and wind output that drove high price events across DMO regions. These high price events have also affected the price of wholesale electricity contracts for 2025–26.
Meanwhile Minister Chris Bowen, Mr Blackout himself, blames coal and the Russians:
Energy Minister Chris Bowen defended the government’s energy policy, insisting that the unreliability of coal was responsible for the rise.
“Not a day in the last two years have we had a coal-fired power station not break down somewhere in Australia,” he said. “Not talking about planned maintenance, I’m talking about unexpected breakdowns which then see energy prices spike. The government wants to replace that power with “more reliable, cleaner, cheaper renewable energy”, he said.
“What we have seen is substantial world movements in energy prices as a direct result of the long tail of Covid and supply-chain issues, but also of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the Prime Minister said on Thursday.
As for the failures of coal plants, it’s like being gas-lit. If electricity costs more when we have less coal, what happens when we have no coal?
No one is buying the pandemic-war-excuse anymore. The price of oil is the same as what it was before Covid and the Ukrainian war, so is the price of coal, and LNG. In any case, Australia is one the top three exporters of coal and gas in the world, and so if we’re short, it’s because we screwed up.
The real problem with the “old” coal plants is that we are running them full tilt, treating them like dirt and giving them away to corporations for $1 (Vale Liddell!) Many of the companies that own coal plants also own a suite of competing generators and happen to benefit when some coal breaks down because they earn more off the price spikes. In a fake free market, AGL paid $1 for Liddell, but wouldn’t sell it for $250 million a few years later because it was worth more dead than it was as a functioning plant.
The auction rules for the Australian electricity market means that the highest winning bid that was needed by the market operator is paid to every single player who successful bid (even though they may have offered a lower price). So removing a low bidder shifts the winning bid “up” a layer to the next highest bidder in the stack. Effectively, nearly every big player benefits when one low cost asset is disabled or removed.
The top accepted bid sets the price for all the players.
If we had of used rune stones and chicken entrails to design our national energy policy it wouldn’t be this embarrassing.
Will any journalist pin that Minister down with some basic questions? Does he realize coal plants can be maintained for 50 to 70 years? If we delay “Net Zero” targets by ten years, or even a hundred, would any Australian notice? How many degrees of cooling will we achieve and at what cost? What are the interest payments costing us on our global weather control… (Readers can suggest more questions below. What should an Energy Minister know?)
The leader of the opposition has called for the Energy Minister to be sacked. The mystery is why he was put there in the first place.
“…. Australia is one the top three exporters of coal and gas in the world, and so if we’re short, it’s because we screwed up”
“Screw-up”?
Hardly.
Deliberate Alinsky-style sabotage.
Yet, none dare call it TREASON..
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The sabotage extends a lot further than power. The CFMEU are the current standard bearers.
And yes, elements of what we are seeing are certainly treasonous. I rate Net Zero as bare faced treason.
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Interesting thought.
I’d put him, and others, as puppets rather than the puppeteers.
So I wonder if they have crossed the boundary into treason?
Cheers,
Dave B
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This is because Chris Bowen is not the minister for energy. His official title is Minister for Climate Change and Energy. So, in his little brain CC comes first. It was also the title when Angus Taylor was the incumbent in the previous LNP government. Hence, also within Canberra that means they think the two parts of the title are linked. If we had a Minister for Cheap Energy, things would be different. But I think little Chrissy should probably be the Minister for Silly Walks anyway.
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Reminds me of when Wilson Tuckey was Minister for Forestry and conservation. Except Wilson Tuckey knew he was taking the Mickey.
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‘What should an Energy Minister know?’
Any fool could show him the door.
BBB = Bye-Bye Bowen & I don’t even live there.
RIP HMS Australia 🇦🇺
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Was your “HMS” a miskeying of “HMAS” or a subtle dig ?
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Ben Beattie’s wonderful The Baseload Podcast is back for the year. As an electrical engineer he does a great job getting to the bottom of this mess.
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“If we had of used rune stones…”
“Had of”? What language is OZ using now?
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AI-lingo by the reads of it 😃
Lying Language Models™️ haven’t computed apostrophes nor contractions yet, unless Jo is using the voice-to-text Al Gore Rhythm method.
How’s about ‘had have’ or had’ve fo’ short – and for your own sake and your wallets Australia, that Bowen-bird needs to walk the plank… quick-smart!
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I commented yesterday that Jo could get her favourite AI tool to write some of these articles. Thought later, that would be a great experiment. What if she did and nobody noticed?
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It was 6am and I was trying to channel Stone Age spirits… a little bit pidgin.
PS: AI is often correct but very very boring.
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Jikkyleaks (the whistleblowing lab mouse) has been having some fun over on X today, smacking down Grok for telling lies. Interesting conversation. https://x.com/Jikkyleaks/status/1900775998016442416
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That’s not only bogan English, it’s also a pleonasm.
The word *of* is redundant.
The sentence should have read, “If we had used rune stones…”
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Or: “Had we used rune stones . . . “
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“Oz” – as she are spoke in places
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Thanks for the laugh another ian.
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“The government wants to replace that power with “more reliable, cleaner, cheaper renewable energy”, he said.”
If the ruinables were reliable there would be no need for the coal-fired generators or any other backup system.
More ruinables will be just as (un)reliable and still need a backup.
How is it that the ruinables are able to bid to supply power when they cannot guarantee that the wind will blow, the sun will shine, the clouds will disappear and they are not required to install an alternate technology to ensure they can provide what they are bidding for?
“more reliable, cleaner, cheaper renewable energy” is an oxymoron spoken by a moron
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It’s all very well for the would be PM Peter Dutton to call for Bowen to be sacked while at the same time pushing Net Zero and more solar/wind. Both Labor and Libs think we’re idiots, and to some extent they’re right! The TEAL/Green blob just have to sit on the sidelines and keep stum as the next election is unlikely to resolve our power dilemma because with a hung Parliament they will be the “King Makers”. The Libs are controlled by a small collective of LINOs that are able to dictate policy by veto!
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That is not correct, of course existing wind and solar installations cannot be thrown away, they have contracts and government favourites status now, if Dutton Government is elected the Dutton Plan changes Labor’s Transition and Renewable Energy Target agenda, nuclear power stations to replace coal fired power stations already shut down and utilising the same locations alongside the main transmission lines and each with water supply.
Dutton Plan adds more gas turbine generator plants and supports the coal fired power stations fleet and with retirement-replacement schedules spanning thirty more years and could be extended if necessary.
As for Paris emissions agreement and Glasgow net zero emissions, Australia signed the Paris Agreement 2015 in 2016 but has not signed a Glasgow net zero agreement and as I have posted before PM Morrison did commit to an aspirational goal subject to new technology (nuclear for example zero emissions) and without damaging the Australian economy.
Read the various parts of the Dutton Plan and quickly see why wind and solar is not considered to be technology worth subsiding etc., Menzies Liberal free enterprise (capitalism) calls for minimal government interference in markets, let private sector choose and free enterprise principles apply to competing.
However, the nuclear plan for Federal ownership relates to combining uranium based technology- ANSTO OPAL nuclear reactor Sydney, ANSTO R & D, AUKUS nuclear submarines for example.
Federal Government wholly owns Snowy Hydro Electricity power stations and dams, and some gas turbine and diesel generator plants operating elsewhere, and Red Energy retail electricity. Coalition purchased State shareholdings in Snowy Hydro before commencing the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project.
https://www.australianeedsnuclear.org.au/our-plan
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I never mentioned anything about “throwing away” existing solar/wind! I do agree, however, that we need nuclear but that is a long term plan! At least two more election cycles! Sitting on the fence will only kick the can down the road.
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Regarding exiting Paris and Glasgow emissions impositions, right now predictions are of a minority Labor Government being formed after the next election, or many a Coalition and others alliance, but either way given the zealotry of Labor Green Teals and climate based hoax politics for the Coalition at this stage to commit to exiting would be a dangerous strategy politically and hand their opposition parties ammunition that unfortunately enough voters would fall for without thinking it through.
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Would readers please note that chickens are in short supply due to govt stupidity, and that turkeys (non human variety) and seagulls can be substituted instead.
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Blackout Bone Head Bowen is a Goose. Add that one to the company of chickens, turkeys and seagulls
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If Peter McCullough’s theory about bird flu is right, gain of function research has seriously affected us for the second time in 5 years.
This time around, eggs are scarce on supermarket shelves. And the climate soothsayers will now be left short on entrails to divine catastrophes in the distant future (unless the other suggested birds or dead chicken guts are useable).
Our soothsayers are world class. They consistently fail to correctly predict anything with any degree of accuracy.
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There is a rather simple answer to this.
Any Generator, of any type, must “bid into the load”, 24 hours in advance, based upon previous days profile, with absolute liability, at fixed price. Peaking or spot generation would be at market price.
Either the Generator Can provide the bid, or not. If not, the Generator must provide the Bid power at any cost to the Generator.
That would separate those who Can from those who Cannot.
Reliable Generators can, and will, bid into the load. Non-Dispatchable W/S cannot do that, as they are unreliable Generators.
Liability costs will separate the Producers from the Pretenders.
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I know B O Bowen is a stupid donkey but even he should be able to understand these accurate, but very simple graph lines.
First the world has been on the same Human co2 emissions trajectory since 1945. Look at the world from 1945 through to 2023.
The NON OECD has been booming since 2000 and the OECD actually emits less annual co2 emissions today than in 1988.
And that tiny near horizontal Aussie line at the bottom is just 1% of global co2 emissions.
We obviously can’t continue to use TOXIC UNRELIABLE W & S anymore even though 90% + of Aussies voters don’t know SFA about these graph lines.
And probably most barking mad Labor, Greens and Teals voters couldn’t care less about the real data.
So why aren’t Bowen and the other left wing loonies demanding that the NON OECD countries stop all co2 emission increases TODAY?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=OWID_WRL~Non-OECD+%28GCP%29~OECD+%28GCP%29~AUS
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Bowen and his cohorts have forgotten that ‘net zero’ means absorbing as much CO2 as we emit.
They are pushing 100% removal of CO2 emissions (current plan is 82% but 100 is the ultimate impossible aim)
The CSIRO Cape Grim web page states that the Southern Hemisphere is a net sink of both CO2 and CH4 (methane) so why do we need to do anything other than tell the Northern Hemisphere to stop ‘polluting’
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Schernikau and Smith are big on addition of conventional energy because wind and solar are unsustainable.
They explain that wind and solar are a net drain on the energy balance of the industrialized world. They are energy stealers, incapable of making an independent living. They sponge on more efficient providers like spoiled children who never leave home, raiding the ‘fridge, using the car without asking and leaving their stuff lying around the house. And don’t even think about the mess in their own rooms!
https://open.substack.com/pub/rafechampion/p/wind-and-solar-the-energy-thieves
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Runinables are not even useful supplements to the power system due to their intermittency. Australia will not evolve to become a key player in the adoption of advanced technologies like AI given the energy requirements.
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Note the AGL logo and motto on the graph – ‘Energy In Action’. The perfect motto for the stupid country – ‘Energy Inaction’.
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Energy Inefficiency could also apply. Energy Incompetence, Energy Ineffectiveness, Energy Insanity, Energy Instability, Energy Insecurity, Energy Interruption….
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Just to show there are foolish politicians everywhere, have a look at this. Where it says Pensylvania you could easily insert Australia, or maybe more specifically Victoria.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/youve-got-blackout-pennsylvania
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Only this week I seem to recall Lily D’Ambrosio was bragging about Victoria having Australia’s cheapest electricity.
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Last month energy expert Aidan Morrison explained to John Anderson why the CSIRO report is BS and why energy prices will keep rising under Labor.
This short video is only about 4 minutes but the full interview is available on you tube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSpAUm3Pcdw
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Strictly speaking, Bowen is correct when he states “Not a day in the last two years have we had a coal-fired power station not break down somewhere in Australia”. Except that he is using incorrect phrasing to cover his misinformation.
One coal fired power station was “broken down” for far longer than two years: Callide’s C4 power plant in Queensland:
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2024/08/30aug-cpp4-rts-commences/
This power plant needed its turbine and generator completely rebuilt after a catastrophic failure destroyed both back in May 2021.
Bowen won’t mention Callide C4, because it destroys his meme about old coal fired plants breaking down due to age. Callide C4 was only commissioned in 2001, so not even 20 years old when it suffered its “unplanned outage”.
Similarly, Bowen doesn’t like to use actual data, because it would show that coal fired generator availability has actually considerably improved over the last two years, as the experts show:
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2024/08/coal-fired-unit-performance-has-improved-markedly/
So clearly, the increase in electricity costs since Labor came to power cannot be attributed to an increase in coal fired generator outages. Unavailability has been decreasing since January 2023, and is back down to 2014 levels.
Just another porky that he likes to use to fool those who take him at his word!
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Big Wind Bowen is complicit in associating fossil fuels with “antiquated” modes of generating power such as coal powers stations. He and his ilk falsely claim coal produced power is expensive and unreliable. The only claim they can make that is remotely true is that coal is “dirty”.
On the other hand, their mantra is that the renewables are clean, cheap and reliable.
Callide C4 was kind of like that abandoned car you see on the side of the highway. It will either be picked up by the owner to be repaired or towed away for scrap.
A coal-powered station is no different to your car- if you fail to maintain it, it will not perform optimally and it may lead to a breakdown. If it breaks down, obviously you need to repair it in order to use it again.
You don’t go and tell people your car is crap because you failed to maintain it or repair it as needed.
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From the Gob of Blackout Bonehead Bowen –
“What we have seen is substantial world movements in energy prices as a direct result of the long tail of Covid and supply-chain issues, but also of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the Prime Minister said on Thursday.
World energy prices and the Russian invasion? What a dope. Australia does not import electricity. It is all generated here. And what does a Coal Fired Electricity Plant have to do with the Feral Gov’ment erecting loads of Transmission lines for the solar and wind toy plants. The Coal fired Transmission lines have been here for yonks and only need ongoing maintenance. Not much of the way of increased costs there and ongoing maintenance of the Coal Fired Plants is a known factor and shouldn’t be an issue either.
And the Coal Fired Plants are the back ups for the Unreliables. the Batteries are not big enough for this and never will be. Astronomically expensive and there are not enough resources to build the Ginormous ones anyway. And what happens when they catch fire?
Sack Bowen NOW and lets get the Engineers back on the case and build back better.
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This election, the Labor Party are done like a duck dinner.
Sadly … to mix a metaphor … there aren’t a lot of good options on the table.
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All I can come with is that maybe the maddest independents can bring about the change we need – a break from Government, ‘the Belgian solution’ where no one can take Parliament because all seats are so fundamentally ideologically opposed. A situation where no new Legislation can get through.
Afraid though that in our situation Charlie would step in to appoint an interim government – might be good in a long term view to shake the buggers in the palace off our backs, but imagine if he is the one that then chooses on our behalf?
Took 22 months to rerun and settle the Belgian elections… Can you imagine the peace and quiet?
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BTW here’s John Anderson’s full interview with Aidan Morrison last month and it takes 1 hour 19 minutes.
But it does expose so much of the BS and fra-d of the B O Bowen lunacy.
This stupid donkey should’ve been sacked a long time ago and yet so many in the MSM and most so called scientists are still too gutless to say anything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V812lNNunKM
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Sky News’ Danica Di Georgio tries to unlock the fairy tales of solar and the clueless Zali Stegall is a sick joke.
How any thinking person could vote for her is beyond reason.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX9ASFuSs50
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Her public profile suggests a person who could not change a vehicle wheel.
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Zali? She’s so nice. Like all the Teals she’s just so nice.
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How to listen and learn.
Blackout is beyond educating. He knows everything he needs to know to get to where he is. Sadly that is not in Australia’s interests.
And unless Dutton grows a pair and calls out the climate scam, his party will continue to make detrimental decisions for Australia’s future. Nuclear is fine as a long term option but Australia needs to get serious and change the electricity market rules to eliminate the semi-scheduled category of generation. If your generator cannot supply on demand then you have no access to the market.
If the electricity prices continue at double inflation, a bigger battery becomes economically viable for me.
The AUD inflation rate for gold since KRudd is 8.8%. A bit more than the electricity price inflation in AUD. But it does highlight how energy underpins our standard of living.
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Rickwill, I phrased that badly, my point what not what we could teach him, but how we could teach journalists to ask better questions. I was hoping to get suggestions we can send to allies in the press. I’m looking for questions that “obviously” an Energy Minister should be able to answer. Kind of like asking the Treasurer “Whats the interest rate”. Something that shows he hasn’t done his homework in a way that the man in the street could understand.
And yes, I agree, obviously our market is screwed and wind and solar plants need to buy their own batteries and interconnectors so they can bid as a scheduled operation, which would of course expose the fantastical cost of making unreliable energy reliable.
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“What we have seen is substantial world movements in energy prices as a direct result of .. the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the Prime Minister said on Thursday.”
What? It should be a requirement of our elected leaders to at least attempt to make sense.
But if you can spend $1Billion on shares in a totally speculative Quantum Computer company in California, who cares what you do with our money?
If only Turnbull’s wild adventure into pumping water uphill worked sooner? Now possibly more in cost than the Panama Canal, we can hardly wait for all that free power.
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And I would like to know what impact a delayed migration of Wilderbeest due to Climate Change has on Australian energy prices.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE LOSE MORE COAL CAPACITY
Simple, we hit the tipping point and enter a red zone when power failure is guaranteed on nights with little or no wind
Around the Western world, subsidised and mandated wind and solar power have been displacing conventional power in the electricity supply. Consequently, most of the grids in the west are moving towards a point where the lights will flicker at nights when the wind is low. This is a “frog in the saucepan” effect and it only starts to worry people when it is too late. It may be too late for Britain and Germany.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
Consider the ABC of intermittent energy generation.
A. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.
B. The continuity of RE is broken on nights with little or no wind.
C. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.
Therefore, the green transition is impossible with current storage technology.
The rate of progress towards the tipping point will accelerate as demand is swelled by AI and electrification at large.
In Australia, the transition to unreliable wind and solar power has just hit the wall, while Britain and Germany have passed the tipping point and entered a “red zone,” keeping the lights on precariously with imports and deindustrialization to reduce demand.
The meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings and the irresponsible authorities never checked the wind supply! They even missed the Dunkelflautes that must have been known to mariners and millers for centuries!
Thanks to Anton and Paul, the Energy Realists of Australia have been putting this story out to politicians and journalists for years but none have picked up the wind drought story and told the people about it to generate pressure on lawmakers to wake up. The conservative commentators have done no better than the MSM. The Spectator on line is the exception, that is where the wind drought series first appeared. https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/the-energy-crisis-how-we-got-here-and-how-to-move-on
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Off-topic, I’m in two minds about Trump’s proposal to treat the Tesla saboteurs as domestic terrorists.
On the one hand, I don’t support wilful damage to private property and discouraging them by treating it that way is a good thing.
On the other hand, if we let it go on… Most Tesla owners are pretentious virtue-signalling lefties. It can but do them good to personally experience the true character of leftie activists.
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And yesterday’s hero of the left is now their deadly enemy. What do you expect when his son Xavier is taken from him with leftist sex change ideology? Which is killing children and wrecking families. In the name of saving them.
Or RFK, a hero of the Democrats and now working with Trump to do what the Democrats would not do, look after the health of the children.
Or JD Vance, a hero of Hillbilly Elegy fame who saw that Trump was the only one who really cared for the workers, the military and their heroes.
Or Tulsi Gabbard, military hero herself until she realized that only Trump was anti war.
These are people who really did not like Trump. Until they met him. And they now all realise the evil in the far left. There is no far right, but there sure is a fascist/communist far left in America. And Tim Walz was to be President’s Xi’s next man in the White House.
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As Tony from Oz points out, China is not only building 810 NEW coal power stations, it is upgrading all old power stations to make them more efficient. Not because it reduces CO2 but because it saves coal!
If the Australian government really wanted to reduce (our) CO2 output, the fastest way would be to upgrade all existing coal power stations to half the CO2, half the coal, same output. But they do not want cheap electricity. They want to shut Australia down. As they did in the pandemic.
Which is why windmill owners get paid twice through the RET scheme. And we pay for the endless tranmission lines! Plus the tens of billions flowing now from the 35% CO2 tax on the top 250 companies, which is everything we buy. Who knows where the money goes? Carbon Credits. Cash for people overseas. It’s an illegal river of money for absolutely nothing of benefit to Australians. It’s not a tax as the money even leaves Australia.
So much more expensive electricity, not enough gas, illegal gas, illegal nuclear, no coal, not allowed mine for gold or even pick up sticks in the forests for warmth and paying 35% tax on sewage and trucks and planes and ships and all manufacture. No wonder it is all shutting down! As intended. None of this is for the good of Australians. No benefit for Australians has ever been explained because there is none.
Nothing for Australians and no actual reduction in (our) CO2. We are being robbed, robbed, robbed. By our own governments.
And they have the cheek to say these are all overseas forces beyond their control. Like the war in Ukraine. Lies, lies, lies.
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And as I continue to say, any attempt to change atmospheric CO2 is insane. It is fixed by the oceans in constant incredibly rapid equilibrium. Yes, it goes up and down very slowly. It’s a dead straight line at a growth rate of 0.4% pa.
See if you can spot the effect of 500,000 giant windmills or China or lockdown or anything like a gigantic fire or a volcano. Nothing.. No one cares.
You would think someone would first try to prove the connection between fossil fuels and CO2! Radio carbon dating proves there is none. The dilution of cosmic ray produced C14 should be 33% by now if the extra 50% CO2 was from fossil fuel In fact it is 0.0%.
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So why are we being robbed? Is it just greed? Or is it the Art of War?
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>Is it just greed? Or…
Or is it both?
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I have managed to not get upset at ‘chemtrails’ coz this is buying into the whole weather god ‘man controls the weather’ – whether it is with their industry and/or their science.
No doubt they are doing some absolutely mad things out there in the name of weather modification in the name of agriculture (I grew up near citrus where they were using sonic booms to break up hail when the fruit was ripe), in the name of Hydro electricity, even in the name of defence research (weather modification weapons), and no doubt these efforts have some sort of impact (the thing about weather modification is that in research, you can never really be 100% sure if the weather just wouldn’t have happened anyway – the hail system worked and that was observable, but beyond that, it is hard to tell really. In the big scheme of things, why worry?
Yesterday, I saw a bird of prey out training her young. My mind went to the wind turbines – take care out there little one.
Just the simple joy of looking at the sky now not an escape from the grind.
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